SamPratt.com

The Glacier Cometh

 

Take a moment to ponder this astonishing statistic: Columbia County’s population has not even doubled since 1800. 221 years ago, there were 35,000 people here. Today, there are about 63,000.

 

This one statistic explains 95% of why our area is now viewed as so “desirable.” Sure, we have a National Heritage River, great scenery, ruggedly beautiful terrain, plenty of agriculture, and lots of historic buildings. But it would be hard to notice any of those things if local population had kept pace with the rest of the nation. We would have hundreds of thousands, or even millions of residents (proportionally speaking). It would take an hour to drive from Hudson to Hillsdale.

 

How long can that last?

 

There is a population glacier to our south, and it is creeping northward. Has been for decades.

 

Events like 9/11 and COVID cause The Glacier to leap ahead, then settle down and resume its slow creep. Longtime residents get alarmed by the big leaps, then go back to sleep and take less notice of the steady glacial deposits.

 

With more climate, economic and other disasters (recently, the subway and apartment floods in NYC), that constant northward flow will just keep coming, and accelerating.

 

Frankly, it’s futile to try to stop it. Yell on Facebook about “citiots,” reminisce about the (not so) Good Old Days, pray for them to go back to Brooklyn all you like.  It ain’t happening. The culture wars between old and new (and newer) may rage; but the changes will proceed without a pause. Glaciers can’t be stopped.

 

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It will not be surprising if mid-Hudson populations explode over the next 25 years. As New York City, Long Island and Westchester become less and less livable, the Taconic and I-87 will be the paths of least resistance for urban refugees (already are). Destinations within a three-hour drive north of the metroplex will keep filling up. It only takes a small percentage of residents from those areas to head north to abruptly transform low-density counties like ours.

 

For now, population has remained steady, in large part because the increase in households has been accompanied by a decrease in household size: There are more homes, but smaller families. Don’t expect that to continue.

 

The average family size will stay smaller than it was a few generations ago, but the number of families will keep growing. In Columbia County, 65,000 could easily become 125,000. People will wake up and lament, “What happened to the place I once knew?” as if they never saw it coming. And then look around for scapegoats to blame, other than ourselves.

 

Across the River, you’re already hearing a lot of grousing about developments like the “massive” Winston Farm project, which would cover some 800 acres. According to published reports, this would include not just standalone homes, but also multi-family units... along with “an indoor waterpark resort,” plus “job incubators, an amphitheater, event space, camping spaces and an old mansion on-site that would be turned into a boutique hospitality space.

 

Oh, and an “agrihood concept,” whatever that is.

 

All that sounds pretty undesirable, at least at this moment. Honestly, this observer doesn’t like it one bit. Nor should anyone buy the developer’s carefully-massaged sales pitch, cribbing buzzwords and concepts from “smart growth” advocates as selling points.

 

Still, Winston Farm may look tame or even enlightened in retrospect, compared to what else may be coming. The pressure to slam in half-acre cookiecutter developments is going to be immense in the coming years, as realtors run out of existing housing stock to sell.

 

Then distressed farms and other larger properties owners, unable to foot their tax bills, will be glad to cash out to developers. They’ll retire to the Carolinas or Florida… only to get their comeuppance from heat and hurricanes. But that’s another story.

 

City buyers who 20 years ago would not “settle” for less than a handsome falling-down farmhouse on 20+ acres may in another 20 years come to feel fortunate to find a condo within sight (and earshot) of the Parkway or Thruway. Beats living with an elevated train 10 feet outside your apartment window, not to mention floodwaters up to your knees. And empty grocery shelves. They’re not going to feed millions from bespoke rooftop gardens.

 

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Many fantasize that land trusts will save us from this quandary. Their project is to raise money from ultrarich residents to put farmland and forests out of the reach of developers. Problem is, most if not all of these trusts have highly corporate-friendly boards, who are as terrified of controversy as they are inclined to “compromise” with (read: reap major donations from) developers. Often, these boards are populated by developers themselves.

 

Covenants meant to protect open space forever will get modified or even abandoned as the land rush accelerates, greatly augmenting these trusts’ coffers. Release 200 acres here to development, then sprinkle a little of the developer’s donation on one corner of the land for a small public park or farmer’s market, to appease any pesky critics. As once said by Ned Sullivan of Scenic Hudson—who placidly made a deal with a fossil fuel power plant behind the backs of activists, in exchange for a multi-million donation to his organization: Development is something they only seek to manage, not oppose.

 

Such all-but-ineveitable sellouts will be justified as necessary triage. We’ll come to accept the “curation” of growth, and try to make the best of things. In reality, we would be relegated to selecting the least worst option.

 

So what can we do to prepare for the inevitable? For starters, certainly support local agriculture to lessen their temptation to sell to developers. Get as many of your groceries and other essentials from local sources.

 

While we’re at it, tell your neighbors hyperventilating about solar farms to knock it off. We are headed for not just global warming, but global catastrophe. Every inch of solar generation—whether it is located here, or in Nebraska, or Siberia—benefits everyone to the extent that solar replaces fossil fuels and the carbon emissions which result from them. It also helps keep space relatively unspoiled. Solar can always be pulled up, and the soil will still be there.

 

Also, tell your newly-minted neighbors—whether longtime locals, or new arrivals from Manhattan—to not just register to vote, but to vote in more than just national elections. As reported here, turnout from the 2020 Trump-Biden tilt dropped precipitously in 2021, dropping off 43% just a year later. This demonstrates that many voters have yet to understand that local elections actually affect their quality of life (and pocketbook) more than Federal ones.

 

If you want to be able to recognize this place in 20 years, get involved. Support better zoning and more sensible local officials. Oppose boneheaded ideas that would truly destroy the health and character of the area; don’t oppose trivialities. Rather than railing at out-of-place newcomers, or mocking the supposed backwardness of old-timers, focus on solutions that will meaningfully lessen the dramatic changes heading our way.

 

That should include relatively low-impact and contextual new housing stock, built while we still have time, not in a hurry... before the pressure reaches crisis levels, and every pasture gets turned into Levittown.

Election Roundup for 2021

Local Turnout Plummets

In the 2020 Presidential election, a whopping 35,000 people came out to vote in Columbia County, with Biden winning handily. Data circulated this evening by the Board of Elections indicates that only about 20,000 voted this time around—meaning that 43% of those 2020 voters didn’t show up this time.

Voting is generally lower in local cycles compared with Presidential contests, but the precipitous drop suggests that there are many voters who only care about national politics. That’s something for both parties to work on, since in many ways local races affect our day-to-day lives far more substantially.

The full 2021 Columbia County unofficial results spreadsheet can be found here. These await the counting of absentee ballots, followed by official certification, and thus will change somewhat over time.

No Headway for Dems on Board of Supervisors

Despite a lot of big talk in the past month of a sweep which would take over the Board of Supervisors from Republicans, the Columbia Dems failed to make any progress toward that longterm, elusive goal. Dems lost key races for Super in four large towns (Claverack, Germantown, Ghent and Kinderhook).

In Taghkanic, two Democratic candidates for Town Board both won by a very large margin over the lone Republican opponent, 56% vs. 44%. Yet the Taghkanic Democrats, who enjoy a 4-1 majority there, allowed incumbent Republican Supervisor Ryan Skoda to run unopposed. So that Taghkanic seat would appear to be quite winnable by the Dems; but Town Board member Joyce Thompson has been instrumental in convincing them to leave the Republican Supervisor unchallenged.

In Stuyvesant, Democratic Committee officer Lee Jamison may have set some sort of record by losing yet again, having run repeatedly there over the past 20 decades. Other Supervisor races were uncontested, leaving the balance of power on the Board still firmly in the Republicans’ hands.

Meanwhile, the apparent winner of the Ghent Supervisor position, Craig Simmons, recently appeared in a social media video of a Chatham School Board meeting stating that he does not support vaccine mandates, much as he also “fought against helmet and seatbelt laws here in New York.” Simmons was formerly Chatham’s School Board President, but his nomination to be reappointed apparently received no second from any of his colleagues earlier this year. His term on the School Board expires in 2022, so presumably he will relinquish that position once his Ghent victory is certified.

A Taste of Tammany Hall in Ghent

Also in Ghent... The County Board of Elections decided to add a polling place due to shifts in the population, and chose the Ghent VFW as its extra venue. This raised some eyebrows among Ghent Dems, since the Post is traditionally used by the Republicans as their clubhouse, and also a site for GOP fundraisers.

It seemed an even odder choice given that another polling place, the Town Hall, is just a stone’s throw away, meaning it did not help many voters get closer to the polls. Other rejected suggestions had included a site closer to Hawthorne Valley, or another of the Town’s firehouses not already used for voting.

Of particular concern was the fact that the VFW Post has an active bar downstairs from the main space where the election was being conducted, including both an interior staircase from that room and an exterior entrance as well. This raised the specter of old-school Tammany-style politicking, which in the 19th Century often involved promising voters drinks as an inducement for voting.

That has not been alleged so far, let alone proven. But one Democratic poll watcher noted that the bar’s parking lot was very full in the afternoon and early evening of Election Day, and complained that a Republican inspector was telling some voters they could go downstairs for a beer after they finished.

(Note: This author also served as a poll watcher at the VFW in the early morning hours of Election Day... Much too early for a Budweiser.)

Krapf Holds his Own Party

According to Democratic committee sources, after beating incumbent David Bartlett, the party’s nominee for Sheriff decided to hold his own victory party, separate from the party’s event.

After besting Bartlett, Don Krapf reportedly held his own private (less “transparent”?) event in Hudson at the Power Boat Association, after briefly stopping by the Dems’ event in Chatham.

Krapf is a former Republican, who according to multiple sources voted twice for Trump and said voting for Hillary Clinton would be like voting for “the devil.” Sources have further indicated that his commitment to the platform advanced for him by the Dems is tepid at best.

Dem Committee members may consider this a win, but now seem stuck with a Sheriff with deep conservative roots. The party tends to be reluctant to abandon its own nominees, even if they prove problematic in office. Barring some major scandal, Krapf will now be likely to serve until retirement, unless eventually there were a Democratic primary—which could be bruising and vicious. This site will have some thoughts on the futures of both major parties in a future post.

Statewide Setbacks for Dems

One local Dem Committee member described last night’s results as “a bloodbath across the whole state, really” for the Democrats. Particularly disappointing was New York’s failure to approve ballot access referenda backed by the Dems. These would have loosened requirements absentee voters, as well as allowing same-day registration of new voters.

In better news, a referendum supporting stronger protections for clean air and water in the State did pass. But overall, results across New York suggested that Republican voters still fuming over the 2020 Presidential election were in a mood to strike back. There are national concerns that this foreshadows more trouble in the 2022 mid-terms, which are typically challenging for the party controlling the White House.

Hudson Results are Too Berserk to Parse

Meanwhile in Hudson, where Democrats have had a virtual lock on most offices going back 16 years to the hotly-contested Grandinetti-Tracy mayoral race, the results are so hard to comprehend as to defy analysis by an outside observer—even one with a lot of experience in Hudson politics.

Hudson has a remarkable number of positions: Three citywide offices (Mayor, Council President and Treasurer); 10 Common Council members, a/k/a Aldermen; and five County Supervisors. Sometimes, there are also primaries for Republican and Democratic Committee seats. In the above-mentioned 2005 contest, there were something approaching 50 candidates for various positions.

This time around, some key offices were uncontested, but the subject of (mostly) futile write-in campaigns. Other races involved candidates who had asked too late to be removed from the ballot, at least one of whom appears to have won. For more close-to-the-ground details, try reading coverage at Carole Osterink’s The Gossips of Rivertown.

Hudson seems to be becoming a textbook example of the perils of one-party rule—resulting either in a herd mentality among members of the same team, or else vicious infighting among elected officials and Committee members of the same party.

Multiple factions now exist among the Dems, each jealously defending its piece of the party pie. Despite sharing a party affiliation, there seems to be less not more cohesion and cooperation over time. It almost makes one nostalgic for a time when there were a few moderate Hudson Republican aldermen like Ed Thompson and Kathy Harter, with whom one could have open and reasonable discussions.

Election Day update, 4:30 pm

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE EARLY VOTING NUMBERS

According to data from the Columbia County Board of Elections, turnout seems somewhat light as of 4:30 pm on Election Day. Total turnout is a little over 11,600. Normally, one would expect a flood of voters once people get out of work—and no doubt the total will still increase substantially, though probably less than back in the day before early voting.

In the table below, this site has aggregated voters in traditionally right-leaning parties, left-leaning parties, and unaffiliated or independent parties. The tallies do not include absentee voters and their affiliations, but those tend to skew leftward.