For what it’s worth, the Iowa Futures Market puts the chances of Obama winning at just under 80%; Intrade pegs his re-election odds at 71.5%; and Nate Silver of The New York Times says there is a 91.6% chance of Romney losing.
I won’t be particularly excited if Obama is reëlected—his record of diminishing civil liberties, assassinations by executive order, killings of innocents by drone, and punishing whistleblowers appalls this once-enthusiastic 2008 volunteer.
But I’ll be relieved if Romney is not elected. As Hudson’s Justin Weaver quipped on Facebook: “I don't think America is ready for a white President.”
With similarly dispiriting choices on the local level, there are a number of Democrats who may eke out victories who otherwise would have gotten crushed, because several Tea Party candidates managed to upset incumbents in the Republican primaries, dividing the GOP vote. Cheryl Roberts claimed environmental bona fides are a grotesquely cynical joke, while the main effect of Robin Andrews getting to the State Senate for two years (and one tends to suspect it would be for just one term) would be to hand the Claverack Supervisor seat back to the County Republicans in 2013.
Didi Barrett at least is one (rare) upstate Democrat who seems to believe what she says, and is willing to stand up for issues that matter to her constituents, and deserves support for her bid to return to the State Assembly. Richard Mott likewise has proven himself worthy of a judicial position, by distinguishing himself as an able attorney—and would merit a vote regardless of what party line he ran on.
(Note: The above Presidential numbers are odds, not predictions of popular vote percentages. Whatever happens, soothsaying will remain a growth industry.)
