The results of this highly unusual seven-candidate regional primary will take a long time to fully digest, but here are some immediate takeaways:
- As predicted, the projected winner is in line for victory without a solid mandate. Antonio Delgado as of 11:15 pm on Tuesday is ahead with less than 1/4 (22%) of the votes cast, with some results still rolling in.
- Looked at one way, this means that 78% of Dem primary voters go to bed disappointed.
- Gareth Rhodes was in second place as of 11:15 pm. He won Columbia County, with Delgado second.
- Turnout in Columbia was about 30% among registered Dems; turnout districtwide was more like 26%. About 35,000 participated, much better than the less-contested Teachout-Yandik primary in 2016. But that still means almost 100,000 Dems did not bother to make a choice.
- Delgado appears to be a candidate virtually all Dems will get behind, especially with the fever to blunt Trump and the GOP in Congress. His GOP opponent, John Faso, can be expected to go after his heavy funding from by New York City law firms and lobbying connections.
- Erin Collier’s belated attempt to capture the women’s vote fizzled, earning less than 5% despite women making up more than 50% of the electorate.
- Brian Flynn’s campaign underperformed many expectations, coming in 5th slightly behind firebrand ex-CIA agent Jeff Beals as of 11:15 pm.
- Many of the candidates may look tomorrow at Dave Clegg as the spoiler in the race. Clegg garnered the vast majority (over 70%) of his votes in one County, Ulster. His votes in Ulster alone would have put any of the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th contenders into contention with or ahead of Delgado. While this could be said of some others as well, Clegg is the only one whose support came pretty much exclusively from his home turf.
- Thankfully, corporate spook Pat Ryan did not win. (Maybe now he will be liberated to get back to his true passion, getting paid by big business and spy agencies to snoop on union leaders, journalists and activists.)
- Beals, once expected to finish near the bottom of the heap, did a good deal better than expected, most likely due to extensive late exposure via an “This American Life” profile. (One suspects that a large number of likely primary voters are also WAMC listeners.)
- One is left wonder what would have happened in a two- or three-way race between Delgado and one of the other top contenders. He might well have won narrowly, but with so many candidates cannibalizing each others’ support, it is very hard to say whether the best candidate won, or just the best-funded.
- Notably, pretty much none of the candidates had any district-wide profile prior to running, and little if any experience serving in local elected positions. One again wonders what would had happened if, say, someone like New York State Assembly member Didi Barrett had run. Would as many challengers have come forward, if any? That the Dems fielded seven new faces could be a sign of fresh blood, or a symptom of not having much of a bench from which to draw.
